From Zero to One
Going from zero to one is the hardest step in any innovation journey. Scaling is tough and pivoting when things are not working is tough, but nothing compares to the effort required to create something from nothing. This early stage is defined by taking risks, building trust and proving in real life that you can solve a problem for a group of people in a way they can adopt and afford. You must do all this while navigating strict limits on time, resources and infrastructure.
The real craft of going from zero to one is learning how to take the maximum possible risk, build the maximum possible trust and gather the most compelling evidence that you are solving a real problem, all as quickly and cheaply as you can.
This post explores risk, trust and problems. These are the three conditions that shape early stage innovation more than anything else.
Understanding Risk
When designing products and services for the public sector or for the often vulnerable groups that the public sector serves, we have to consider how both perceive risk. Political and clinical environments face heightened scrutiny for good reason. We often describe these as high risk environments, but that language is misleading.
In high risk environments the perceived risk of trying something new is often seen as greater than simply sticking with the status quo, no matter how ineffective the status quo may be. This creates an inaction bias. You must climb a higher wall simply to convince stakeholders to try a new approach, even if the benefits could be significant.
High Risk and High Consequence
Political and clinical environments are not necessarily higher risk. They are higher consequence. Elite climber Alex Honnold describes this well. The likelihood of something going wrong is not always higher, but the consequences when it does go wrong are far more serious than when you are designing a new chocolate bar or an online shopping feature.
If we approach zero to one with this lens, we can identify ways to take the maximum appropriate risk while managing the higher consequences through careful decisions about where and how we test.
Test Your Riskiest Assumptions First
Every innovation is built on assumptions. Some are safe, some are catastrophic if wrong. You always want to start by testing the assumptions you are least sure about. These have the highest chance of failure and therefore should be tested in small, controlled environments that minimise exposure to political, social or clinical consequences. Small does not mean superficial. Testing your riskiest assumptions requires rigour and relentlessness. If you have an idea for a product or service, your first job is to do everything possible to prove why it will not work. That is how you take the maximum appropriate risk in order to learn at the fastest possible rate.
If, after doing this, you still believe the idea has legs, you are ready to move forward.
How to Disprove Your Theory Quickly
Write down your riskiest assumptions.
Find a way to test those assumptions with around eight people or users.
Plan the test so it can be conducted as quickly and cheaply as possible.
Be clear on what you are measuring and what success looks like.
One of the simplest tools for doing this is a test card. It is intentionally basic so that you do not get lost in unnecessary complexity.
We believe… [your assumption]
So we will… [your idea or approach]
And measure… [the thing you want to see change]
We will know we are right if… [your success threshold]
Key Lessons on Risk
Be clear about the difference between high risk and high consequence. Explain this to stakeholders so they can embrace change more confidently.
Do everything possible to prove your idea is not viable.
Test your riskiest assumptions with the lowest possible exposure to negative consequences. Do not start tests in highly public parts of a service or system. Do not test early with the most vulnerable people in your user group.
Building Trust
Trust is perhaps the most vital condition for success when building a new product or service. People must trust you and your product to use it. A large part of trust building happens naturally when you demonstrate rigour in testing your riskiest assumptions. If people can see that your ideas have been pushed hard and tested well, they have fewer reasons to doubt the strength of your innovation.
To build trust effectively we need to understand the different types of trust and when each matters.
Institutional Trust
Institutional trust is the confidence we place in institutions. This is the trust that your local hospital will treat you well, your train will reach its destination or your phone signal will allow you to make calls and send messages. This type of trust is based on the probability that the service or tool will work reliably and meet your needs.
Relational Trust
Relational trust is the trust we build with people, groups or communities we relate to. It is the trust you have in your siblings, your friends, your neighbours and the people you share a sense of belonging with. This trust is grounded in emotional connection rather than pure functionality.
Institutional trust is powerful but brittle. When things work, loyalty feels unbreakable. When something goes wrong, trust collapses instantly. We all know the feeling of cursing a train operator because the train is ten minutes late, even though the system delivering those trains is a miracle of engineering.
Relational trust is more elastic. It holds even when things do not go perfectly. It is the belief that someone or something will improve because you believe in them. If institutional trust is belief that the product will work, relational trust is belief that you will make the product work.
Use Relational Trust Early
When moving from zero to one, you should cultivate relational trust first. You need elasticity in the early stages so that your early adopters stay with you even when things go wrong. Think carefully about your tone of voice, the way you bring early groups together, the way you speak to early adopters and the way you encourage them to join you.
Over time you will move toward institutional trust, but it is relational trust that gets you through the bumpy part of the journey.
The Relentless Pursuit of a Solution
Your path from zero to one must begin with a well evidenced problem. The problem must be big enough to matter to enough people that solving it becomes viable as a sustainable product or service. Spend time understanding the problem deeply.
Then accept that you must be willing to do anything moral, legal and ethical to solve that problem. Your loyalty must be to the problem, not to your idea. Innovations driven by ideas often go from zero to one and straight back to zero. Innovations driven by the relentless pursuit of a solution go through ups and downs, adjustments and pivots, but they keep moving forward.
Things to Avoid
Epiphanies
Many innovations fail because they begin life as an epiphany. A flash of inspiration that feels like a complete idea. This mindset makes you cling to the idea even when you should change direction. A medical testing mindset works better. Keep your eyes on the goal and adapt what you do to solve the problem.
Passion
Passion is not the same as commitment. Passion can cloud judgement. People commit crimes of passion, they do not make rational decisions based on evidence through passion alone. You need enthusiasm combined with comfort in uncertainty.
What to Do Instead
Understand the problem you are trying to solve.
Write a great problem statement. When you truly understand the problem, write it clearly. This becomes your north star.
Use user stories to test and validate potential solutions. Start with many and rule out most through short, cheap, high risk but low consequence tests.
If you do this consistently you will find product market fit over time.
Writing a Problem Statement
A strong problem statement answers five questions.
Who is experiencing the problem?
What is the problem? Describe the gap between the current and desired state.
Where does the problem occur?
When does it occur?
Why is it worth solving? Focus on the impact of a solution.
A good example is:
The lack of access to clean water in rural areas of developing countries is leading to increased incidence of water borne diseases and impeding socio economic development.
Notice there is no mention of a solution. That is why your problem statement becomes your north star. Anything that effectively solves the problem can become your product.
A Natural Way to Understand Zero to One
Although zero to one is the hardest part of innovation, it is also the most natural in terms of how humans instinctively solve problems. To illustrate this, imagine a small story.
Your family has washed up on a desert island. There is plenty of fruit and shellfish, but you do not recognise any of it. You have two children. One can eat anything without trouble. The other has strong allergies.
What is your first step?
You gather a small amount of the food that looks most promising. You do not waste energy collecting everything. You start small because you can always gather more if it turns out to be safe.
Next you try a tiny amount yourself. Then you give a small amount to the child with the stronger stomach. You would never give a large amount to the child with allergies because the consequences could be severe. You use your relational trust to encourage your first child to try it. They trust you because you are their parent and you would never knowingly put them at risk.
If the first child tolerates the food, you have taken the maximum appropriate risk and learned what you needed. You can then introduce a small amount to your more vulnerable child. You have maximised learning while managing consequences. You also chose the food that is most abundant because there is no point testing something you cannot scale. If it works for both children, you have solved the problem for the whole family. You have gone from zero to one.
This is exactly what test and learn looks like. It is instinctive to all of us. The modern world of work often pushes us away from this natural logic, but we need to bring it back.
Because this is how you go from zero to one.